A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
