Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
